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What the bonding curve does
Pump.fun describes its initial market as a constant-product pricing curve using virtual reserves. Trades change the reserves and therefore the price; larger trades can produce a different effective fill from smaller trades. On graduation, the market moves to PumpSwap. Pump.fun: bonding curve and graduation.
For research, the relevant distinction is the venue and state of the coin at the time of observation. A chart captured while the curve is active and a quote requested after migration may refer to different trading contexts. Record the stage alongside the timestamp rather than assuming the chart alone explains an execution result.
What curve progress can tell you
In BLIX's pump.fun feed, progress is derived from the observed reserve state relative to the curve's initial token allocation. It is a stage indicator used in the Pulse workflow. It is not an estimated probability that the token will graduate, an expected return or an estimate of how many minutes remain.
Consider a hypothetical token showing 90% progress. That observation describes the current measured state under the feed's calculation. It does not establish that another 10% of elapsed time will finish the process, that a particular future trade will arrive, or that the token is more attractive than a less advanced one.
Separate completion, migration and observed pool activity
BLIX's market service distinguishes a nearly completed curve from subsequent pool activity and can temporarily block an account trade when it detects migration. This is a product behavior based on the observed feed. It should not be used to infer a universal migration duration or a guaranteed time when your next transaction will succeed.
When investigating a transition, check the most recent stage update, the transaction or market reference and whether the quote belongs to the active venue. If one source still shows the curve while another shows a pool, retain both timestamps. A delayed feed update is a different problem from a transaction that was submitted and failed.
A practical review around graduation
- Confirm the mint and record the latest stage and observation time.
- Check the coin's recent trading activity rather than only its progress percentage.
- Review holder concentration and creator activity using their source and completeness indicators.
- If the service reports migration, wait for refreshed state before interpreting an old quote as current.
- Inspect the available route and price impact after the pool is active.
- Keep submission status and confirmed outcome separate in the record.
This sequence is for verifying state. It does not prescribe buying before graduation, selling afterward or repeatedly submitting transactions during a transition. The appropriate next action depends on fresh execution information and the decision you intended to make.
Graduation does not settle the research questions
A different venue does not answer who controls the supply, whether the story is credible or how much an intended exit would return. Revisit the same holder, liquidity and source questions after migration. An older research report can remain useful background while no longer describing the current market.
Keep track of which claims concern the protocol and which concern the token. A documented graduation mechanism is a statement about the platform. A claim that a particular coin will maintain demand requires evidence about that coin. One does not follow automatically from the other.
Check current terms rather than fixed tutorial numbers
Launch costs, fees and platform behavior can change. Use the current creation or execution interface and the platform's documentation for the operation you intend to perform. This guide intentionally does not turn a historical dollar threshold, fee or reserve constant into a promise about every future launch.
Frequently asked questions
Does 90% curve progress mean a 90% chance of graduation?
No. Progress is a measurement of the curve state under the feed's calculation, not a forecast probability.
Does graduation guarantee a successful trade?
No. Check the active venue, fresh quote, route and transaction result.
Why can BLIX temporarily block a trade during migration?
The service can detect a transition between the completed curve and observed pool trading. Its guard avoids treating that transient state as an ordinary available route.